Wrong. Bimodality does not require continuity. Evolutionary biologists should stay out of probability.
Asides
When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it.
When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia.
Dangerously incompetent man, this @alemannoEU , increasing risk for all of us. Overreacting early is a necessity You notice that all these overeducated (miseducated) dangerous fools who don’t get precaution are academics into the nudge and “risk and rationality” business.
Clown, but good.
Answer to who are the (recent) thinkers I don’t find BS vendors? In random order Saul Kripke, Derek Parfit, Elinor Ostrom, Fernand Braudel, Jules Veyne, Tom Holland, Peter Frankopan, Jean-François Revel, Michael Okeshott, Isaac Levi, Russ Roberts, Jon Elster, many,many, many Each in a different field: philosophers, historians, pol scientists) Erratum: Paul Veyne not Jules. Add: Jane Jacobs, James Scott, E Le Roy Ladurie, etc.
TRUE JUSTICE If you really want diversity & protection of minorities suffering workplace prejudice, stop chromo-categorizing — that fake unempirical business. Hire unattractive people. They are the one suffering the most, & deprived of attention.
Back in New York after 7 weeks absence.
Psychologists are trapped w/wrong tools, coining words such as “probability neglect” because they miscompute systemic payoffs. This article proves ONLY one thing: that Nudgeboy @CassSunstein is ignorant of risk & probability. Explanation of error in: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.11162.pdfThe logical problem with IYIS: we don’t know the risk HENCE let’s ignore it.
The problem with Bloomberg is not his competence; he has the charisma of a plate of reheated-but-lukewarm unsalted fried cauliflowers.
