John Gray in New York for some flaneuring in spite of the weather.
Asides
#FooledbyRandomness is abt how many successful businessmen are not as skilled as we think. But I hold that ~all bureaucrats are unskilled.~ALL is never ALL, which IS the Black Swan idea.
I love Kahneman. Not Thaler.
1/ Conversation with John Gray. Any “thinker” who strays from the allowed script experiences something similar to leprosy. 2/ Michael Oakeshot the philosopher of small “c” conservatism had at some point six mistresses, all wives of leftist professors. 3) A long, 4 hour conversation with Isiah Berlin would consist in 3 hours and 50 minutes of gossip. 4) Pagans unlike monotheists and atheists don’t have heresies.5) Gray discussed 19th C Russian writers who were like me, both Orthodox & classical pagans, e.g. Merezhkovsky
As a trader and probabilist, let me guess. Odds that he is not a middle aged German baker. I venture: Jihadi 20-40. Simply 99% of such acts are by Salafascists. A deranged German yoga instructor is possible, but very low probability. 3)Turned out that I was right about the “religion”. I like to stick my neck before info is public, just for existential riskloving reasons.4) Point of risktaking: had the perpetrator been a German librarian, the pseudoleft police would have kept using it for the rest of my life 5) Statistical inference using background information/conditional probability, alas, cannot be made to be politically correct. Live with it.
Best training ever for rigor & critical reasoning is…TRADIN G. You can ONLY survive long term by going against wrong CONSENSUS by “experts””Bulls make money Bears make money Sheep get slaughtered.” Fat Tony, in #Skininthegame 3/Trading and real science (not science journalism/college scientism) are same. Feynman:”Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”
John Gray flaneuring at the Met
My point is to narrow down the designation “Islam” to specific sects that include Wahabis and Salafis, exclude Shiites who have none of that Shiites are very, very tolerant w/Christians. Time for the MSM to substitute “Islamic Jihad” w/ “Sunni Jihad”They play hard geopolitics but they are socially tolerant to Christians.
Why did he change my skin color?
Printer of #Antifragile in China asked me to replace “Taiwan” w/”China, Taiwan”. I (angrily) said “No censorship!”
