COVID-19 – Page 3 – Talebiblia

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ABOUT TALEBIBLIA

Talebiblia is a fan site devoted to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, created by Smiljana Skiba. It features a compilation of Taleb's most intriguing social media screenshots and interviews for readers to enjoy and explore. The website provides a resource for anyone looking to gain insights into Taleb's works, whether they are a dedicated reader or a curious newcomer.

Please note that Talebiblia is an independent website and is not affiliated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb in any manner.

Many thanks to Lucia Simeoni and Ashok Atluri for their invaluable assistance in creating and maintaining this website.

To stay up to date with Talebiblia's latest developments, follow Smiljana on Twitter @MasaSkiba

Do not blame China, Mars or small animals for the current Corona problems. Blame your jointly overoptimized & unprepared system. It is full of IYIs who don’t understand basic asymmetry, absence of evidence, the scaling property of masks, tail properties; basically anything.

There is also some fear that masks increase earthquakes. No evidence against.

BS spotting du jour. Throughout history, we’ve ben quarantining “healthy” and “unhealthy” people. For the very reason that we only know ex post whether they are healthy or not. There is this illusion that the economy is harmed by the reaction to the virus rather than by the virus. In fact, if anything, it is harmed by the lack of EARLY reaction to the virus.

The argument by the @WHO imbeciles & journo fellow travelers that masks “can give a false sense of security” is interesting. Let’s apply it to: +seat belts +airbags +helmets +door locks +condoms +circuit breakers +parachutes +bulletproof vests +fire alarms +scholomorochs …

Ioannidis got the reasoning completely BACKWARD. I mean reallllllly backward. In the real world, one must REDUCE RISK in the absence of reliable data, via the MOST ROBUST (model resistant) method. That’s the message of the INCERTO. The reason: Ioannidis understands the defects of models used in Medicine at 1st order, but doesn’t understand 2nd order effects/asymmetries. Being an academic, he doesn’t understand decision-making under uncertainty & which decision is harmed LESS from model error. #RWRI

Universities are proving to be redundant. They are the first economic victims of the Corona Virus. Unlike with airlines & the hospitality industry, their damage will be permanent.

Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft…

When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia.

Was explaining to an option trader why virus comparisons are inadequate: You must never compare deltas when gammas are very different. This #coronavirus has a high gamma. Straight Jensen’s inequality.

PROBABILITY DU JOUR: What are the odds it was COVID? Let q be the pr. of having a COVID infection (% of the CH population). Let p_1 be the pr. of a healthy 57 y.o dying of a sudden heart attack. Let p_2 be the conditional pr. of a Covid infected 57 y.o dying of a heart attack. https://twitter.com/FT/status/1350528377841733636 Yes, they say that the most likely symptom of heart disease is sudden death.

Talebiblia is a website for devoted fans of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, created by Smiljana Skiba. It features a compilation of Taleb's most intriguing social media screenshots and interviews for readers to enjoy and explore. The website provides a resource for anyone looking to gain insights into Taleb's works, whether they are a dedicated reader or a curious newcomer.

Please note that Talebiblia is an independent website and is not affiliated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb in any manner.

Many thanks to Lucia Simeoni and Ashok Atluri for their invaluable assistance in creating and maintaining this website.

To stay up to date with Talebiblia's latest developments, follow Smiljana on Twitter @MasaSkiba