It is incredible how many problems money can create. Being rich is great for the wise (optionality), but a curse for the suckers as people prey on them & hijack their preferences.
Something UK modelers (idiots) did not get with hospitalization that we traders and modelers in nonlinearities have know since (1997): The market is a large movie theater with a small door. Same for hospital capacity. Gabish? Same with insurance models. Loss from hurricanes aren’t what you think are losses from hurricanes, even if your estimate of the intensity is correct. Why? Because the costs of the material goes up nonlinearly owing to (conditional) excess demand.
Ioannidis got the reasoning completely BACKWARD. I mean reallllllly backward. In the real world, one must REDUCE RISK in the absence of reliable data, via the MOST ROBUST (model resistant) method. That’s the message of the INCERTO. The reason: Ioannidis understands the defects of models used in Medicine at 1st order, but doesn’t understand 2nd order effects/asymmetries. Being an academic, he doesn’t understand decision-making under uncertainty & which decision is harmed LESS from model error. #RWRI
Included Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Morea (Greece), in addition to Anatolia, Georgia, and what is now the Levant.
A trader who loses money becomes an investor
In attitude.
America vs Lebanon
Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error.
UK NUDGE UNIT 1) Just as before the crisis of 2008-9 I was shouting that economic “experts” were no experts, we will sorely discover that behavioral “experts” are even more unreliable. 2) Even psychs admit behavioral papers replicate <½, that is the reliability of astrology. 3) You don't board a plane w/safety w/p-value of .05 (likely to be miscomputed). If they used their "scientific" approach to risk management no pilot would be alive today. Risk require much more reliability than "evidence based" methods which are backward-looking & flawed.
SKIN IN THE GAME All those in the UK who are in favor of the “herd immunity” BS should self-infect with the virus. Includes ALL decision-makers, science advisors and “Boris no Precaution”. Now. #SkinintheGame is about filtering those with systemic danger out of the system.
