You seem very clueless about what false positive means under fat tails.
Category: Tail Risk
These two imbeciles Charles Hooper & @davidrhenderson failed to get that local cost-benefits fail under MULTIPLICATIVE effects & Fat Tails. By protecting the young you protect the old (& other youths) & by protecting the old you protect the young.
Correction: someone distorted it in the transmission chain. Should be: “Fat-tailed phenomena have universality to them.” (Life is not universally fat-tailed). Not yours. I am correcting because people find counterexamples of thin tails (height, weight, etc…) which destroys universality.
ASYMMETRY I kept getting msgs of the sort: “I agree we don’t understand tail risk. But don’t you think we shd consider we might be also erring by overestimating risks of COVID-19?” Translating: “Isn’t the pilot erring by being TOO careful & overestimating risks of a crash?”
High variance != fat tails. Tails risks are no different from what they were before. Perception is a bit higher .
In other words, better say “I don’t know” then “I now know” than say “I know”, then “I didn’t know”. #RWRI
NUCLEAR I NEVER said that nuclear energy was safe. I said that it does not fall under the Precautionary Principle as there is ~no systemic risk. Nuclear accidents are additive not multiplicative (unlike GMOs & viruses). The risk (for small reactors) remains local not systemic. I am not saying NUCLEAR is not dangerous. It is in a different class of risk. SYSTEMIC RISK: non-diversifiable. You can in principle break-up into n reactors to get the needed risk diversification/prevent Chernobyl from being too large.
FAT TAIL PROPERTY 90-98% of the diffusion can be reduced by limiting superspreaders & forcing masks: + Subways/buses + Conferences (especially involving psychologists/behavioral economists) + Planes + Elevators + Bars with bad Negronis + Indoor restaurants/cafés Rest is normal.
Removing economists from the planet
+ (Tail) risk management is abt surviving, not getting into irreversible trouble. It isn’t abt understanding; it’s abt surviving. + Science is a collective procedure to get closer to the truth. Do not conflate the two, as @
