Anyone who finds correlation in this doesn’t know what noise means.
Category: Probability and Statistics
Businessman: “Almost half my income comes from one client. I need to markedly increase my business”. Answer: “If you markedly increase your business, you will do well, but half your income will still come from one client. Another client”. #SelfSimilarity #PowerLaws
) This is the kind of BS about probability I spent my life fighting. Probability is meaningless unless one attaches a payoff/consequence. Verbalistic “assessments” include severity adjustments. INCERTO books sold 4.5 million copies & pple still make this mistake.
On plane back to NY tried to play with a messier probabilistic structure in genetics. Fat tailed: founder effects Fat tails come from winner take all effects from status David Boxenhorn
As a trader and probabilist, let me guess. Odds that he is not a middle aged German baker. I venture: Jihadi 20-40. Simply 99% of such acts are by Salafascists. A deranged German yoga instructor is possible, but very low probability. 3)Turned out that I was right about the “religion”. I like to stick my neck before info is public, just for existential riskloving reasons.4) Point of risktaking: had the perpetrator been a German librarian, the pseudoleft police would have kept using it for the rest of my life 5) Statistical inference using background information/conditional probability, alas, cannot be made to be politically correct. Live with it.
In his response, @FiveThirtyEight , proved he really did not understand 1)probability, 2)time series,3)how to respond.
Friday Quiz. What is the unconditional mathematical expected duration between departure and time to destination between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing? How about a flight between Rio de Janeiro and Paris? ANSWER: Infinite. A very tiny probability of crash makes the unconditional expectation infinite. All other answers with finite duration are conditional on the plane eventually making it to destination.
