Probability and Statistics – Talebiblia

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ABOUT TALEBIBLIA

Talebiblia is a fan site devoted to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, created by Smiljana Skiba. It features a compilation of Taleb's most intriguing social media screenshots and interviews for readers to enjoy and explore. The website provides a resource for anyone looking to gain insights into Taleb's works, whether they are a dedicated reader or a curious newcomer.

Please note that Talebiblia is an independent website and is not affiliated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb in any manner.

Many thanks to Lucia Simeoni and Ashok Atluri for their invaluable assistance in creating and maintaining this website.

To stay up to date with Talebiblia's latest developments, follow Smiljana on Twitter @MasaSkiba

PROBABILITY DEBUNKING DU JOUR Covid Sociopaths are insultingly naive statistically. They are trying to make a difference between “dying WITH” and “dying FROM” Covid. But excess death put losses from Covid, given absence of other causes, at >1 million, ~27% above the 820K est.

Unless you are into pediatrics or developmental medicine, aging should not be seen as a deterministic distance from birth, rather the expectation of a stochastic distance from death. [The Probabilist’s version] Unless you are into pediatrics or developmental medicine, aging should not be seen using the distance from birth, rather through the estimated distance from death.

The problem is that Mr @AdamMGrant is conflating “small effect” and an R^2 of practically 0. R^2 is about the reliability of the linear regression, not the size of the “effect”. https://Susan, small effects matter when there is no noise. Think about the Law of Large numbers: it ONLY applies to a single individuals in the absence of noise. In this case we is not talking about small effects but R^2.

Nothing to do with ergodicity, even if it overlaps. Write down in math and you will see. One can have a sex operation, BTW.

The best way to explain Schwartz distributions (and genrlzed functions): above is like a straddle with time left, below a straddle at expiration. The theory of distributions is very complicated: it simplifies once once uses the analogy to option pricing. The idea is to use an option model and increase time value. At the limit you get the hockey stick.

The average human has one breast and one testicle Generalizing from particulars and particularizing from the general

No NonGaussian

The taller other hired CEOs the more likely you were hired because of height.

An excellent summary of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails. https://amazon.com/gp/product/1544508050/ Or Scribe Store [Guaranteed World Wide Shipments for total

Probability du Jour: The Talmud’s “God provides the cure before the disease” is an example of survivorship bias (similar to the anthropic principle). If the world were any different, we wouldn’t be here. (Thanks to the encyclopedic @davidboxenhorn ) David Boxenhorn

Talebiblia is a website for devoted fans of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, created by Smiljana Skiba. It features a compilation of Taleb's most intriguing social media screenshots and interviews for readers to enjoy and explore. The website provides a resource for anyone looking to gain insights into Taleb's works, whether they are a dedicated reader or a curious newcomer.

Please note that Talebiblia is an independent website and is not affiliated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb in any manner.

Many thanks to Lucia Simeoni and Ashok Atluri for their invaluable assistance in creating and maintaining this website.

To stay up to date with Talebiblia's latest developments, follow Smiljana on Twitter @MasaSkiba