Fundamentally, you don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work (although with these behavioral nudge idiots it’s likely to not work), but based on the systemic costs of the error.
Category: BS Busting
UK NUDGE UNIT 1) Just as before the crisis of 2008-9 I was shouting that economic “experts” were no experts, we will sorely discover that behavioral “experts” are even more unreliable. 2) Even psychs admit behavioral papers replicate <½, that is the reliability of astrology. 3) You don't board a plane w/safety w/p-value of .05 (likely to be miscomputed). If they used their "scientific" approach to risk management no pilot would be alive today. Risk require much more reliability than "evidence based" methods which are backward-looking & flawed.
REMINDER: Psychologists as a collective are probability-ignorant BS vendors publishing unrigorous crap. Just a reminder. 2) Psychologists themselves own that >55% of their results don’t replicate. I’ve shown that 100% of what they do in fat tailed domains is exactly backward.
Kluuuuuuelessly dangerous. The fellow @vaughanbell is a psychologist. Invokes “evidence based”: you need “evidence” of a crash before putting your seat belt on. The U.K. is doomed by government listening to “tenured” psychologists and nudge operators, like Thaler & other idiots.
Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it. When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft…
When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it.
When paranoid, you can be wrong 1000 times & you will survive. If non-paranoid; wrong once, and you, your genes, & the rest of your group are done. It’s a yuuuge mystery that academics who deal w/risk, “rationality”, subforecasting & superforecasting fail to get it. Plane and car crashes are neither multiplicative nor systemic. I block anyone comparing fear of multiplicative pandemics to car crashes. Besides, airplane safety is the result of mega-paranoia.
Dangerously incompetent man, this @alemannoEU , increasing risk for all of us. Overreacting early is a necessity You notice that all these overeducated (miseducated) dangerous fools who don’t get precaution are academics into the nudge and “risk and rationality” business.
Interestingly the only pple who talk about “scientific consensus” (aside from GMO shills like @mark_lynas ) are journalists, schoolteachers,& other destroyers of science. Science is a rigorous process against consensus, questioning consensus, & debunking consensus.
Definition Du Jour An intellectual is a designation for someone who, should she or he stopped writing, will never be read again.
